The idea
Market profile traders describe several kinds of open. The strongest is the open drive: price leaves the opening price at once in one direction and never trades back to it. Such opens often lead to trend days.
The strategy waits for the first 15 minutes to confirm the drive (no trade below the open), lets price pause, then buys a close above the first 15 minutes' high, with the stop under the pause.
Watch it play out
Step by step
The rules
Setup
- Price leaves the open immediately and does not trade back to it in the first 15 minutes.
Entry
- After a short pause, buy on a close above the first 15 minutes' high.
Stop-loss
- Under the pause's low, or under the open for more room.
Target
- 2R, or hold for a trend day with a trailing stop.
Filters that help
- Skip it if price returns to the open: the drive has failed.
- Stronger on days with news or a gap.
Why it can work
An open drive shows one side arriving with conviction from the first minute. When price never returns to the open, the other side has no chance to establish itself, and the day often keeps moving the same way.
Waiting for the first 15 minutes also filters out the most chaotic part of the open. By then the drive has shown that it is not just a few early orders, and the high of those minutes gives a clear trigger. The cost is a worse entry price than the brave traders who bought the open.
Worked example
ES opens and climbs 8 points in 15 minutes without touching the open. It pauses, then a candle closes 1.2 points above the first 15 minutes' high: buy, with the stop 3 points lower under the pause, $150 per ES contract or $15 per MES.
With $100 at risk, 6 MES contracts fit. A 2R target sits 6 points above the entry.
When it works, when it fails
Works best
On trend days, typically after news, in liquid index futures and active stocks.
Struggles
When the drive stalls and price returns to the open; on quiet days the 'drive' is just early noise.
Common mistakes
- Calling any early move a drive, even one that returned to the open.
- Chasing the first candles instead of waiting for the pause and the break.
- Fading a genuine drive because it looks overextended.
What the evidence says
Evidence: Popular, untestedWidely used, but no rigorous public testing. An idea to test yourself.
Open types come from market profile, a widely used framework, but there is no rigorous public study of this entry after costs. It is related to the opening range breakout, whose research found the strongest results on days with unusual activity.
Test it on your own records, with realistic costs.
Questions
- What happens if price returns to the open?
- The drive has failed, and the setup is off. Days that return to the open often turn into ranges, where breakout trades suffer.
- Can the opening drive be traded on stocks?
- Yes, especially stocks with news and heavy early volume. The same rule applies: no trade back to the open in the first minutes, then a break of the early high.
- What is an open drive?
- An opening where price moves away from the opening price at once and never returns to it, a sign one side is in firm control.
- How is it different from the opening range breakout?
- The opening range breakout trades any break of the first minutes' range. The open drive only trades days where price never went back to the open, a stricter filter.
- Does it work for shorts?
- Yes, in reverse: an open at the high, a drive down without returning, and a sale on a break of the first 15 minutes' low.