The idea
The Silver Bullet is a time-based model taught by the trader known as ICT. It only trades inside fixed one-hour windows, the best known being 10:00 to 11:00 am New York time. Inside the window, price is expected to take out liquidity on one side, then move toward liquidity on the other.
In practice: mark the highs and lows formed before the window, wait for one side to be swept, look for a fair value gap in the move away, and enter on the return into that gap, targeting the opposite side.
Watch it play out
Step by step
The rules
Setup
- Mark the high and low formed before 10:00 am New York time.
- Only trade between 10:00 and 11:00 (other windows: 3 to 4 am and 2 to 3 pm).
Entry
- Inside the window, price sweeps one side (for a buy, the morning low).
- The move away leaves a fair value gap: buy on the return into it.
Stop-loss
- Beyond the sweep's extreme.
Target
- The liquidity on the other side, such as the morning high, or a fixed number of points.
Filters that help
- No setup by 11:00, no trade.
- Prefer setups that agree with the higher-timeframe bias.
Why it can work
The window falls after the first wave of the New York open, when the early moves have run stops and the market often sets its direction for the late morning. The rules combine two ideas, a liquidity sweep and a fair value gap, inside a fixed time, which makes the setup rare and specific.
Worked example
At 10:12 MNQ sweeps the morning low, then rallies and leaves a gap. Price comes back into the gap at 10:31: buy, with the stop 25 points lower, under the sweep: $50 of risk per contract.
The morning high is 45 points above the entry, about 1.8R. With $100 at risk, two contracts fit.
When it works, when it fails
Works best
On days with a clean sweep and a decisive move inside the window, in liquid index futures.
Struggles
On slow days with no clear sweep, on news days when the window is chaotic, and whenever the rules are bent to find a setup that is not there.
Common mistakes
- Taking setups at 11:20 because one almost formed.
- Calling any small gap a fair value gap.
- Counting only the winners when reviewing: the model is easy to fit to charts after the fact.
Variations
- London Silver Bullet
- The same model in the 3 to 4 am New York window, during the London session.
What the evidence says
Evidence: Popular, untestedWidely used, but no rigorous public testing. An idea to test yourself.
Smart Money and ICT concepts are among the most popular ideas in trading education right now, especially on YouTube and TikTok, but there is no rigorous public study showing their entries have an edge after costs.
Part of the reason is that the rules leave room for judgement, so the same chart can be read two ways. Treat it as a framework to write down precisely and test on your own records, not as a proven method.
Questions
- What time is the Silver Bullet?
- The best known window is 10:00 to 11:00 am New York time. ICT also describes 3:00 to 4:00 am and 2:00 to 3:00 pm New York time.
- Which markets is it used on?
- Mostly Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures (NQ, MNQ, ES, MES), and sometimes forex pairs during the London window.
- Does the Silver Bullet work?
- It is popular, and many traders share winning examples, but there is no rigorous public test of it. Write the rules down exactly and test them before risking money.
- How many trades does the Silver Bullet give?
- At most one or two a day, and only inside the window. Many days give no clean setup at all, which is part of the design: the model is meant to keep you out of the market most of the time.